Deep Learning-based Prediction of Clinical Trial Enrollment with Uncertainty Estimates
Clinical trial enrollment is a critical bottleneck in drug development: nearly 80% of trials fail to meet target enrollment, costing up to $8 million per day if delayed. In this work, we introduce a multimodal deep‐learning framework that not only predicts total participant count but also quantifies uncertainty around those predictions. Challenges in Enrollment Forecasting Traditional approaches fall into two camps: Deterministic models – e.g. tabular ML like XGBoost or LightGBM – which output a point estimate but ignore variability in recruitment rates. Stochastic models – e.g. Poisson or Poisson–Gamma processes – which simulate recruitment and give confidence intervals, but often struggle with high-dimensional, heterogeneous data. Model Architecture Inputs ...